By: Abbas Abdullahi Marafa, Fatima Isah Bima
Pages: 593–614, Volume: 3, Number: 1
Published by: AEFUNAI Journal of Economics, Finance and Development Studies, Alex Ekwueme Federal University, Ndufu-Alike, 2/1/2026, 2026
ISSN (Electronic): 2536-6742
DOI:
Determinants of Agricultural Sector Output in Nigeria: Climatic and Non-Climatic Factors
Abstract:
The paper examined the macro determinants of agricultural sector output in Nigeria using annual time series data spanning from 1981-2022 and employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bound tests. Two models based on climatic factors (rainfall, temperature, and carbon emission) and non-climatic factors (Government expenditure on agriculture, agricultural credit, money supply, exchange rate, and Inflation) were estimated. The empirical results for both climatic and non-climatic models showed that while climatic variability—particularly temperature and carbon emissions—poses a threat to long-term output, non-climatic factors like government expenditure and credit access are significant drivers of growth.
Keywords: Agricultural output, Climatic factors, Rainfall variability, Adaptation strategies
How to Cite
Marafa, A. A., & Bima, F. I. (2026). Determinants of Agricultural Sector Output in Nigeria: An Analysis of Climatic and Non-Climatic Factors. AEFUNAI Journal of Economics, Finance and Development Studies (AEFUNAI-JEFDS), Vol. 3(1), 593–614.
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0)
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