By: M. E. Nwancho, K. E. Uma
Pages: 138–157, Volume: 3, Number: 1
Published by: AEFUNAI Journal of Economics, Finance and Development Studies, Alex Ekwueme Federal University, Ndufu-Alike, 2/1/2026, 2026
ISSN (Electronic): 2536-6742
DOI:
Impact of Temperature Variability on Agriculture and Industrial Sectors Contributions to GDP in Nigeria
Abstract:
Nigeria’s real gross domestic product (GDP), with emphasis on the agricultural and industrial sectors from 1981 to 2022, is examined using secondary time-series data from credible sources to assess the effects of temperature variability on sectoral growth. The study adopts the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach, with stationarity tested using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test and long-run relationships examined via ARDL bounds testing, while short-run dynamics are analyzed through an error correction mechanism. The findings confirm a stable long-run relationship among temperature variability, agricultural output, industrial output, and labour force participation. Results show that temperature variability negatively impacts agricultural output in the long run, while industrial output is more resilient. The study recommends climate-smart strategies to safeguard the agricultural sector.
Keywords: Temperature variability, Sectoral GDP, Climate change, Agricultural output, Nigeria
How to Cite
Nwancho, M. E., & Uma, K. E. (2026). Impact of Temperature Variability on Agriculture and Industrial Sectors Contributions to GDP in Nigeria. AEFUNAI Journal of Economics, Finance and Development Studies (AEFUNAI-JEFDS), Vol. 3(1), 138–157.
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0)
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